How To Calculate The Bet Size With Kelly Criterion?

Gambling is super unpredictable. And it’s an advantage of course. But sometimes, you may want to have a bit more control over the process. And that’s likewise understandable. One way to gain this control is by placing bets with arithmetics in mind rather than intuitively. The Kelly criterion is what works well for this.

What is the Kelly Criterion?

It is a mathematical formula that allows determining the optimal bet size. The formula takes into account two important factors:

  • Player advantage in a specific bet
  • Odds offered by casinos

Considering these factors, you can determine the percentage of your bankroll that you can bet. It’s also useful to look for special promotions and bonuses because they extend this bankroll a bit (or significantly). In quatro casino, for instance, they have many promotions with free cash.

Step-by-Step Calculation

  • Step 1. Determine the Probability of Winning: First, you have to figure out your chances of winning. This might sound like rocket science, but it’s really not. Just look at past games, expert opinions, and whatever you can handle to gauge your odds of success.
  • Step 2. Determine the Odds: Just get them all in the same format, whether it’s decimals, fractions, or moneylines. That way, you compare apples to apples when you crunch the numbers.
  • Step 3. Apply the Formula: Now, for the fun part, plug your numbers into the formula. We’ll walk through it together with an example, so don’t worry if math isn’t your strong suit.

Practical Examples

The formula is supposed to be used in online casinos and sports betting. It is always easier to understand the mechanics when you have a concrete example in front of you. So let’s consider one.

You’re playing roulette at vauhti casino and bet on red or white. After calculating the numbers, you realize you have a 50% chance of winning. In this case, your chances are equal (1:1), which means you need to put these numbers into the formula, and voila! You will receive a clear answer on how much you must bet to stay in the black.

Advantages of Using the Kelly Criterion

Alright, why bother with all this math? To spend as little as possible. With every bet you somewhat invest in future winnings. You maximize your returns while minimizing your losses. The criterion, in turn, acts like your financial advisor.

Potential Pitfalls and Limitations

You need to understand that in gambling, you cannot have a 100% advantage over a game in which luck significantly influences the outcome. The odds and the market often change; accordingly, our formula can also fail. The risk to your bankroll remains since the risk is an important gambling component.

Tips for Successful Implementation

Alright, here’s the scoop: if you wanna make the Kelly Criterion work for you, you’ve got to work, too. Keep track of your bets, stay sharp with your probability and odds, and don’t let emotions call the shots. And remember, there are plenty of tools out there to help you crunch the numbers, so take advantage of them.

One big tip is to start small and gradually increase your bets as you gain confidence. Keep your eyes on the prize and stick to your strategy, even when things get tough. You’ll come out ahead in the long run with patience and persistence.


Of course, the Kelly criterion may seem complicated. It actually is. And you do not necessarily have to apply it to ALL your bets. After all, a casino is not a Math class. Meanwhile, the use of this formula may give you a new experience. If you are already familiar with most casino games and their mechanics, you may naturally start to get bored. If that’s the case, introducing a new element to your decision-making can really work.

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